whatever your energy source. So there is undoubtedly a role but we believe a limited role for carbon capture and storage. But the two absolutely dominant technologies of the future, a zero carbon economy, our electricity used directly and hydrogen, we must electrify as much of the economy as possible, and we must use hydrogen. Next slide please, to address the sector’s which we cannot directly electrify (Slide 13, page 60). We believe that hydrogen which is presently consumed at around 100 million tons per year, primarily used in the production of ammonia via the haber bosch process and in the refining and some bits of the chemical sector, we can see that going to somewhere between 500 and 800 million tons a year by mid-century used in a whole series of sectors, used as a storage mechanism in a electricity systems, used in the steel sector, used in the form of either methanol or ammonia to decarbonize a long distance shipping. We believe that the vast majority of that and this is what the left hand side shows will be produced by the green route of electrolysis of water rather than the blue road of coming from methane. So we have huge demands for electricity directly used and electricity to produce hydrogen. If you produce 500 million tons of hydrogen from electrolysis at 45 kilowatt hours per kilogram, which is about what we can now achieve that will require 22,500 terawatt hours of electricity (Slide 14, page 61). So next slide, please. What we have to plan on at the absolute core of the future zero carbon economy is a massively expanded role of electricity. Today, the world produces and consumes about 27,000 terawatt hours of electricity. How much we need in 2050 or 2060 will depend on how good we get at energy productivity and energy efficiency. So, we have a range from about 90,000 terawatt hours to as much as 100,000 and 130,000 terawatt hours, depending on how we good, we get at energy efficiency. The majority of that somewhere in the 70,000 to 90,000 terawatt hours will be used directly. But a significant amount will be used to produce green hydrogen, and then more used to produce synthetic fuels, and ammonia. So, we have at the core of the zero carbon economy, a massively expanded power system, totally decarbonized. And it’s not therefore surprising (Slide 15, page 61). 3. Lo scenario internazionale della transizione energetica 45
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